Insider look at the 2017 Vihiga Governor race that had Amadi, Chanzu, Ottichilo, Akaranga neck to neck

First, let’s lay everything on the table. The following is a complete list of politically significant factors that were in play during the 2017 Vihiga Governor race:

Scramble for Maragoli vote in the Vihiga governor race

In Eng. Amadi, incumbent Moses Akaranga and immediate Vihiga MP, Yusuf Chanzu, the Maragoli sub-tribe with circa 40 % of the vote in Vihiga county came balls out for the governorship. That said, whoever gets more than 50% of the Maragoli vote is well on the way to being governor.

What about the Bunyore, Tiriki and Teriks? Don’t they count for anything?

As we shall see, the running mate matrix and other forms of negotiated democracy in the 2017 Vihiga Governor race complicates matters for the smaller communities of Vihiga county. Even if the implications of vote splitting is discounted, 50% of the Maragoli vote counts to almost the number of votes of these other communities in Vihiga county.

With that out-of-the-way, we have to ask, “How does one get the Maragoli vote?” A question that we found boiled down to another question:

Which way Sabatia?

With just under 10,000 votes less than the vote rich Hamisi constituency, Sabatia constituency is home to just over 63,000 votes. That’s about a quarter, 25%, of registered voters in Vihiga county as per IEBC figures. Yet again, the candidate who bags 50% of Sabatia gets close to 50% of the Maragoli vote and thus inches closer to becoming the next Vihiga Governor.

Three things come into play in Sabatia: The Musalia Mudavadi factor, the Moses Akaranga factor and clannism.

Lest you forget, Akaranga’s rise came at the cost of Mudavadi in the 2002 elections. On the ground therefore, that both gentlemen have significant hold over this key constituency. Akaranga’s influence extends south towards the vote rich Wamuluma-Lugaga ward of Vihiga constituency, while Mudavadi’s influence reasonably possibly extending North towards the Tirikis of Shamakhokho and Kiamosi in Hamisi constituency.

To that mix, add clannism and the likelihood that Mudavadi just like William Ruto in Uasin Gishu, might face resistance imposing a candidate on the people. For his presidency dreams to remains alive, Mudavadi may have to trade the presidency (Maragoli) for the governorship (Tiriki or Bunyore) to share the spoils equitably.

However, as it has become increasingly evident with devolution, the people want to exercise their choice in the lower seats. In Sabatia, this might mean comfortable reelection or Mudavadi’s trusted lieutenant Sabatia MP, Alfred Agoi, with the votes for governor scattered between the Maragoli candidates Amadi, Chanzu and Akaranga.

Hyperlocal politics: The case of Wamuluma-Lugaga ward in Vihiga county

Here, we have to ask if the rifts that emerged during the Amani National Congress primaries have healed sufficiently. I pick Wamuluma-Lugaga as a microcosm of this potentially game shifting factor thanks to in large parts it’s grabbing of national attention. The then Wamuluma-Lugaga MCA, Wilberforce Kitiezo, ran a successful door-to-door campaign to win his seat in 2013 with Ford-Kenya in what was a UDF & PPK zone.

Legend goes that Yusuf Chanzu approached Mr. Kitiezo and even undertook a ‘coronation’ of him as his successor: “By taking Kitiezo on a tour of parliament and introducing him to fellow parliamentarians as the one who was going to succeed him (Chanzu), going as far as showing Kitiezo where he was going to seat in the August house,” one villager said to me.

So Mr. Kitiezo ‘grew’ and went for the Vihiga MP ticket during the ANC primaries that were marred with irregularities. His candidature was meant to seal South and Central Maragoli’s traditional support for Chanzu. Only for the ballots never to arrive and Kitiezo’s stronghold not voting (managed a measly 600 votes) , thus handing victory to perennial challenger former Mumias Sugar Factory Finance Manager Mr Ernest Ogesi.

So in Yusuf Chanzu’s stronghold, there are whispers of betrayal. Just as there are in Hamisi where both Dr. Amayi ( Hamisi native who lost in the ANC gubernatorial primaries) and Eng. Amadi cry foul over the ANC primaries.

The Khaniri factor

Despite protestations, a history of ‘fighting’ Mudavadi, George Khaniri, the Tiriki’s Mwana Amberi was given a ‘direct ticket’ to defend his senate seat. The lad wasn’t even there during the nominations. As this report in the Star Newspaper online edition reveals:

“It is evident I was short-changed because Senator Khaniri travelled out of the country early this week not bothered about the primaries,” Amayi said. He criticized ANC for failing to publicize names of beneficiaries of direct nominations, as did other parties.

He said voting materials arrived late and his name did not even appear on ballot papers, yet he met all eligibility requirements.

“Today, I’ve been crucified and buried. But in three days, I’ll come back and when that happens, you can imagine how the image of ANC will be,”
George Khaniri, Vihiga Senator on 2017 ANC primaries

The question remains, why this pampered approach to Senator Khaniri by Mudavadi’s party? Is it to deliver Hamisi votes in toto for ANC’s Vihiga Governor aspirant, Yusuf Chanzu in some negotiated democracy scheme?

The Running Mate Matrix in 2017 Vihiga Governor Race

There must have been a brief held somewhere for Governors and their running mates. To qualify to be running mate, you had to come from a ‘minority’ tribe in the county. But with sufficient numbers to engage in an unholy matrimony where your numbers were sufficient enough to create a coalition of the willing of the major tribes.

Secondly, you were to be some sort of intellectual- Professor, diaspora doctor etc., never a politician. Ostensibly so as not to stress the governor with your political ambitions a `la Bernard Kiala and Mutua of Machakos. To yield a politician-professional combo, think Sonko- Igathe type machinations, which I honestly don’t buy into.

It’s no different in Vihiga county where the governor candidates targeted Munyore intellectuals (Luanda & Emhaya constituencies have a combined potential 91,163 votes) and the Tiriki and Terik professionals in hunt of ( Hamisi constituency with potentially 73,357 votes) .

Vihiga Governor Candidate	Sub-tribe	Running Mate	Running Mate Sub-tribe
Hon. Yususf Chanzu “Mkombozi”	Maragoli	Dr. Billy Nyonje	Munyore (Chairman of Vihiga county contractors)
Eng. Josephat Amadi	Maragoli	Dr. Helen. A. Otolo (Philosophy scholar and Author)	Munyore
Hon. Wilbur Ottichilo	Munyore	Dr. Patrick Saisi ( Former UN, now Moi University Lecturer Economics H.O.D)	Tiriki ( Vukhova clan- was one half of the Butiko campaign that lost by a marginal 1,700 votes to Akaranga in 2013)
Hon. Moses Akaranga	Maragoli	Dr. Joseph Imbunya (Botswana based MD)	Tiriki ( Valukhova clan- the largest)

Source:Standard Media, Nation media, Vihiga News, Albert Inima/Flikr,

Having considered the broad brush issues in this race for Vihiga governor, here are the nuances of each candidature as we picked them on random conversations with residents of Vihiga.

The independent Vihiga governor candidate – earth mover Eng. Amadi, the niche specialist

Eng. Josephat Amadi’s Strategy during the 2017 Vihiga Governor race.

Back when Boda Bodas were still Black Mamba bicycles, Yusuf Chanzu faced a formidable opponent in one Ambassador Ken Vitisia Omusedi, the current Kenyan Ambassador to Burundi. Never before had Vihiga constituency witnessed such an epic political battle. As a matter of fact, to-date, there hasn’t been another duel like the Vitisia-Chanzu battle.

Simply because Vitisia did raise a storm of political dust like no other : T-shirts, caravans, boda boda races, football tournaments; you name it. From Chango to Magada, Gambogi to Lunyerere, “Omusedi” witu was the song. This razmatazz had all of us thinking: Yusuf Chanzu “Mkombozi” , nyumbani. Lo!

Lo! Wiley Yusuf Chanzu knew where the votes were. The Boda Boda, Mbihi rangers, Madioli FC and the likes, then as still might be the case, didn’t have national ID cards; leave alone voters cards as was the requirement then to vote.

Yusuf Chanzu knew where the real votes were. He hadn’t been the longest serving MP in Western Kenya in recent times for nothing. “Mkombozi”, now running for governor banked on the womenfolk in the churches and chamas to deliver another victory. With these sure voters in the bag, among many other things, Chanzu could rest easy confident that at the very least, kura zake, wouldn’t be too drunk on the morning of election, to vote.

Family

This appears to be niche Eng. Amadi is going for with his family values driven, heavily church tuned campaign for Vihiga Governor. Vide this startegy, just as in the bothced Amani National Congress primaries, the bulldozer is on a collision course with Yusuf Chanzu. Remember, Mukombozi still commands significant votes among this demographic.

To appreciate just how hard Eng. Amadi is going for this demographic, consider this update made on the official facebook page for Eng. Amadi for Vihiga Governor:

If you don’t believe me, or him, do call up Guku and Senje (the one who’s married across the river and over the hills for comparison), back in Ingo. After the pleasantries, put her on speaker phone (as trust me utachoka kushikilia simu) then ask them what about Eng. Amadi. You better to have loaded enough airtime!

Strengths: What works for Engineer

Eng. Josephat Amadi fits the bill of your archetypal Maragoli. Mild demeanor, not loud or abrasive. For any politician to have a chance with Western Kenya voters, this gentlemanly aura is the elixir.

Resources

Building the temples for the lord doesn’t come cheap. Besides, before the Eng. Amadi candidature for Vihiga Governor, we people of Mulembe would only hear of rumors candidates carrying out civil works in a bid to win votes in other parts of Kenya.

The only other candidate who comes to mind is the failed bid of the Oyulas (father and son) for Butula constituency in the 2013 elections. Now it’s not uncommon to find Eng. Amadi supervising road works across the breadth of Vihiga county utilizing his graders and earth movers.

Age

Save for Khaniri & Mudavadi, you will be hard pressed to an elected representative in Vihiga or indeed Western Kenya of the younger extraction. Moreover, more than just being Bakoki Eng. Amadi is walking the paths they walk, at their pace and concerning himself with their issues.

Women factor?

With a woman running mate, Eng. Amadi is challenging social norms for a community that hardly elects woman. Besides, in a community where Quaker church traditions prevail, it might just be a matter of time (Quakers have a strong tradition of women empowerment including even having women pastors and church leaders).

Cracks in Eng Amadi campaigns

In one of my random travels, the shot trip between Majengo and Mbale, there happened to be an impromptu Matatu political chat discussing the various candidates for Vihiga Governor. The consensus appears to be that Eng. Amadi might have gone for a lower seat, say Vihiga MP, first. They loved the man but had reservations over not having known him for long enough.

What other hurdles stand in the way of the man who in spite of being a political novice, gave Yusuf Chanzu a run for his money in the Amani National Congress nominations?

Political novice

Anyone who has be privy to a political campaign in modern Kenya will confirm the significantly higher cost of buying iron sheets, tiles and benches etc for churches/ women groups etc. First, the outlay is almost always big upfront ( estimates put it a roughly 20,000k minimum per church/group).

Then there is the little fact that these gifts are ‘not felt’ as they are rather impersonal. Therefore it is easy for the voter to dissociate the gift, your candidature and the ballot. Compare that if the Asoya was given per head. Here 20K will translate to roughly 1,000 households having a gorogoro each.

Alienated the youth

Initially, with Dr. Hellen Otolo as the running mate, the Eng. Amadi campaign for Vihiga Governor appeared to have bagged the youth vote as the lecturer’s independent campaign had a strong youth groups focus. Going by their recent publicizing of their campaigns on Facebook, it appears that their hunt for the youth vote has taken a back seat. All said and done, these are different times to those of Omusedi.

The ODM 2017 Vihiga Governor Candidate- Intellectual Hon. Wilbur Ottichilo – The iko nini! Sitoki sibanduki campaign

In many ways, the Emuhaya MP candidature for Vihiga Governor reminds us of the Peter Kenneth campaign for Nairobi Governor. He speaks a different language to normal political speak with sobriety: development. Both their candidatures appeared to have irked some establishment forces. The difference is that for Ottichilo, unlike PK, manged to bag (direct nomination) of a major party: ODM.

The Strategy That Will Deliver The Vihiga Governor to Wilbur Ottichilo

Having picked a party that a strong brand in Western Kenya politics, and one that will find pockets of acceptance within Vihiga, Ottichilo\’s strategy grows on from here. His campaign for Vihiga Governor is premised on two pillars

A delicate ethnic arithmetic: The Maragoli’s split their votes three way among the three candidates. He bags more than 50 % of both the Bunyore and Tiriki vote plus the Luo vote around Luanda and it is Akaranaga Nyumbani!
A strong mass media, online and branding presence. An almost in your face approach , what we call the “Iko nini! Sitoki sibanduki campaign” . From billboards in the heart of Maragoli land (Like the one on BroadPark Hotel on your way just out of the capital- Mbale Town- that kind of announces his arrival into the seat of power) to numerous media campaigns. Consider the following announcements on his Facebook page:

From Tune in today on @KBCChannel1 #TheFrontline as I discuss my agenda for #VihigaCounty from 7.30PM – 9.00PM.

Tomorrow morning from 7.30AM – 9.00AM I\’ll be on Milele FM having a breakfast session on my Vision for the people of Vihiga.

What works for the performer in the 2017 Vihiga Governor race?

Wilbur Otichillo’s candidature reeks of Baba’s run after the grand coalition government. In that, there is something to talk about in terms of development projects but not enough to fully convince.

All this, in the midst of the burden of incumbency where it is expected that some initiatives went awry as is the nature of things to not always be perfect. What then pulled weight in favor of Dr. Wibur Ottichilo in the 2017 Vihiga Governor contest?

Youth Vote

If social media is the way to get to the youth, then Ottichilo has the strongest hand here. With an active Facebook page that always strives to illuminate his relative youth by pumping an active persona of a governor who walks to meet the people, and an official website replete with his agenda.

Then there was the matter of the launch of his manifesto at Mbale Municipal grounds where Mbale residents talked for weeks on end about the entertainment consisting of Yabha Yabha or Momo as vaseve would call the ladies in white .All in a reach for the youth vote.

Moreover, his predilection for an open campaign by his readiness to engage in television debates and the likes appeals to values that the youth may identify with.

Strong brand

Development record and ODM candidature combine to yield a strong brand that will campaign for Ottichilo’s stab at Vihiga Governor even in areas where he will not set foot. He also acts as a wonderful compromise candidate for regions tired of the Maragoli dominance of Vihiga County politics.

What holds back Dr Wilbur Ottichilo?

The man has walked a tight rope in almost every aspect of his campaign for Vihiga Governor. There is too much risk. Let’s face it: The ODM ticket might backfire. Not that his candidature for Vihiga Governor is weak, but with too much opposition in his own turf, his kinsmen might abandon him in favor of more ‘likely to win candidate’.

One almost gets the sense that he is laying grounds for a proper stab at the governorship in 2022, given that then the local tribal dynamics will have changed in favor of a candidate outside the Maragoli. All the same, as it is said, the higher the risks, the greater the returns. Which risks does the Ottichilo campaign have to navigate?

Raila Odinga presidency

Do not under estimate the feeling at the grassroots that ODM needed to yield the lower seats to other NASA affiliate parties once Baba became the NASA flag bearer. This make the Ottichilo candidacy in the 2017 Vihiga Governor race a tough sell outside areas where ODM has clutches of support like his traditional Emuhaya and neighboring Luanda constituencies.

A campaign operating at 30,000 feet

Compared with his rivals, Dr. Ottichilo’s campaign, especially in Vihiga and Sabatia constituencies, hasn’t been granular enough. Moreover, his love for hotel meetings where suits, media blitz and croissants are the order of the day might further alienate him in key constituencies in Vihiga county by appearing as too elitist.

The incumbent PPK 2017 Vihiga Governor candidate- Don Carleone Hon. Reverend Moses Akaranga- Mr. Institution aka Washindwe!

Here is a man with the political acumen to take advantage of a major blunder by a rival. What people didn’t know about Akaranga at the time was that he had a distinguished career as a banker, stood at the helm and had the trust of significant religious grouping in Vihiga as Reverend, and had the means to fund and run a political part (PPK) Progressive Party of Kenya.

Welcome Mr. Institution. And going by the shaded look on his campaign posters, are I say, the Don Carleone of Vihiga politics who runs the government, church and politics.

Akaranga’s Strategy in the 2017 Vihiga Governor race

Distribution: One easy way to defeat an opponent politically is to deny them the opportunity to distribute their rhetoric. From disrupting rallies, to snatching microphones as Kanduyi\’s Wamunyinyi is famed for to media blackout the works. Akaranga has built his distribution network: Church, government, party.
NASA dalliance: After at times pulling this way or the other, Akaranga picked the right time to throw his weight behind Mudavadi first, then the NASA campaign. They say timing is everything and the Reverend got to perfect. Not too early not too late. We call it a dalliance since PPK never formally joined NASA. This opens the road for his candidates to campaign in relative peace whilst making a post-election pact easy with whomever.

Nguvu za akaranga

For all his Reverend talk, Akaranga is no walkover. He dealt swiftly with his Deputy Governor once he realized that the chap was becoming a liability with his unbecoming public displays. How good a politician is Akaranga? What else holds him in good stead to retain the Vihiga Governor seat?

Master Deflector

Do you know how the good Reverend handles corruption allegations? Not by the tired witch hunting narrative but by playing with the thin line between a church gathering and political rally during his campaigns.

His common refrain is to ask the congregation to “pray for the detractors” and that “washindwe!” . Me and you know how enchanting an evangelical meet can get. Besides, who has the gall to accuse a church elder, a man of God of impropriety? Who has the skills to make such allegations stick?

We are not saying that this is the case here, but haven’t we seen faithful being sprayed with insecticide on the face in the name of blessings?

Master in Rhetoric

Allow us to go back to the moment when Akaranga picked Dr. Imbunya as his running mate:

Mr Akaranga said he picked Dr Imbunya from a pool of 52 professionals from Tiriki.

He said his move to pick on Dr Imbunya will help boost cohesion and create regional balance among the communities.

Said Mr Akaranga: “After five years, I will be leaving office. This opens an opportunity for a Tiriki to succeed me in 2022.”

“Reject my competitors. Let them not deceive you. If you (Tiriki) support them, it will take you 10 years to take the governorship.

“By naming Dr Imbunya, it places you in a direct succession line. I am only going for five years and vacate the seat for you,” Mr Akaranga.

Crush Your Enemy Completely

Law number fifteen of the 48 rules of power illustrates how Akaranga dealt with his deputy governor. Need I say more?

A bevy of foot soldiers at the grass-roots

To the ward administrators, add PPK candidates for MCA, his County Executive Committee Members and their chief officers.

Weaknesses

Granted, the incumbency can be a burden to re-election. But for Moses Akaranga’s second bid for Vihiga Governor, the risk stems from the unusual:

Run-ins with Vihiga contractors over payments.
A perception that he favors members of his church in appointments. Besides, there is the perception that he only concerns himself with projects that belong to his church, leaving the Quakers, Salvation Army and other smaller religious groupings in the cold.
His apparent severance of ties with the Bunyore community.

The ANC 2017 Vihiga Governor Candidate – Wiley Hon. Yusuf Chanzu – The Smooth Operator

One way to tell how popular a candidate is to head online and search for the various Facebook groups, pages and other initiatives drumming up support for him or her. The more slippery that are, the less likely their initiatives would have taken off.

In the recent past, we\’ve witnessed a breed of politicians who only campaign on Facebook and Twitter. These are the types who will have pages with thousands of followers but no ground muscle. Then there are the legion of grass-roots workers whose online presence consists of scanty, clearly unsanctioned initiatives at best. This latter group belongs to the seasoned politicians: The likes of Yusuf Chanzu

Chanzu’s Deadly Two- Pronged Ground and Sky Offensive

Anyone who knows Chanzu recognizes his grassroots skills. This is a guy who knows where the voters are and how to get them to vote. His numbers even as several time Vihiga MP are scarcely impressive. He runs a targeted, drone like precision, efficient campaign.

To this granular approach, now add in what appears to unequivocal , party support, and political scheming that has now bandied Vihiga businessmen behind him with his masterstroke choice for deputy governor. Talk off a ground offensive with supreme air cover.

Mkombozi’s Strenthgs

Only a fool can discount the depth and breadth of networks that Yusuf Chanzu has built over the years. But is this the game changer in his 2017 Vihiga Governor challenge?

The line-up

This time round, Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress didn’t leave it to chance. From the Senator all the way to Member of County Assemblies across the county, ANC went for proven politicians. For instance, the women rep candidate, Beatrice Adagala, garnered over 50,000 votes in the primaries.

For all the talk of favoritism, in our eyes, the goal was clear: To build a team that will seda Mudavadi’s real stab at the presidency in 2022. And the vetting was precise. Yusuf Chanzu appears to be the main hub of that for team Musalia Mudavadi 2022.

Cultural and religious pluralism

Did you know that Yusuf Chanzu being Muslim, is a minority in the largely Christian Vihiga county? Mull over that as you consider that he’s been MP not once, not twice of a people who are at times deeply notoriously religious.

Does Mkombozi have Weakness?

Such a slippery politician, it is hard to let anything stick on the man. Is he a spoiler for Maragoli interested in the Vihiga Governor? To that, he could argue that by trusting him with leadership over and again, the Maragoli are confident that he best candidate to oversee their interests.

What about the fall out from the ANC primaries? Well, for such a skilled politician, he sure should be adept at horse trading which should heal any rifts. What do the people say? Something along the lines of ” Chanzu maneno yake huwezi jua. Utaskia tu ameshinda!”

Disclosure: The writer is not a voter in Vihiga county, neither was the writer incentivized to write this post in any way by the candidates for Vihiga Governor or their representatives. None of the campaigns for the candidates were contacted for material, information or comment. This article is the crystallization of random, at times one liner talk, over the past 12 months with the Boda Boda guy during the ride from point A to B; conversations with Adisa and Barasa at the archetypal Rhoda\’s of the late Whispers type; that kind of thing.